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Ed Mortgage Rate Housemortgagemortgagecorp E Mortgage Szh Company Celink 1078 House Mortgage Mortgage Corp CAIJING Annual Conference 2009: Forecasts and Strategies-《财经网》
Ed Mortgage Rate Housemortgagemortgagecorp E Mortgage Szh Company Celink 1078 House Mortgage Mortgage Corp
Will the year of 2009 usher in a second round of financial tsunami? Will trade protectionism pick up again? When will the global economy recover from the recession? Will the continuous lowering of interest rates globally give rise to a new round of liquidity proliferation?
Will China continue to prosper despite export setbacks, rising labor costs and RMB exchange rate volatility? Will the four trillion stimulus package save the economy or result in a new round of capacity surplus? How far is China from deflation? How should the Chinese government and business deal with the winter?
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·World economy 2009: will it get out of the recession?
·Major uncertainties
·Regional economies and global impacts
·Chances of Chinese economy keeping an 8% GDP growth rate?
·Inflation or deflation?
·Central government economic policy: tradeoffs and trends
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| LIU He, Vice Minister, Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, P. R. China
David DOLLAR, Country Director, China and Mongolia, the World Bank
Andy XIE, Guest Economist, CAIJING; Director, Rosetta Stone Capital Ltd.
JIN Liqun, Chairman, Board of Supervisors, China Investment Corporation
Vivek ARORA, Senior Resident Representative for China, IMF
David P. LOEVINGER, U.S. Minister-Counselor for Financial Affairs to the People’s Republic of China
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| Moderator:SHEN Minggao, Chief Economist, CAIJING |
| 11:00-11:10 |
Tea Break |
11:10-12:40
Studio 1＆2＆3 |
Re-build Pillars for China's Economic GrowthThe three pillars, namely export, investment and consumption, that have bolstered China’s growth, are endangered. Global recession, currency appreciation, and increase of labor costs have suppressed export growth. Slow growth of income and absence of social security have hindered consumption. Fear of deflation also discourages private investment. China needs to rebuild growth pillars.
Growth and employment are the two important issues. In the long run, building a fair system is fundamental to drive growth and to allow that all people, rich and poor, are able to consume.
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·Restructure the three pillars of trade, investment and consumption
·Priorities and bottlenecks for stimulating domestic consumption
·Government investment and tax reduction: which is more important?
·Encourage spending by the rich or the poor?
·Key issues for people’s well-being: healthcare, social security etc.
·Employment or growth?
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| HUANG Qifan, Executive Vice Mayor, Chongqing Municipal Government, P. R. China
Jean-Pierre LEHMANN, Professor of International Political Economy, IMD
CAI Fang, Director, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
SHEN Minggao, Chief Economist, CAIJING
SHAO Bingren, Deputy Director, the Subcommittee of Population, Resources and Environment, the National Committee of CPPCC
ZHOU Qiren, Director, School of National Development, Peking University
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| Moderator:WU Jinglian, Senior Research Fellow, Development Research Center of the State Council, P. R. China |
| 12:40-14:00 |
Lunch |
14:00-15:30
Studio 1＆2＆3 |
30 Years of Reforms Tell the Future (Part I):
Gains and Losses of Economic Transformation
China, a birthplace of economic miracles, faces a series of new issues after three decades of reform and opening. An emerging market as well as a transforming economy, China is about to deepen reforms. Fundamental issues, such as change of government roles, change in growth pattern, adjustment of industry structure, volatility aversion, monopoly demolition, and deregulation of commodity prices, all await to be addressed through deeper reforms.
The current reforms, geared more towards fairness and social justice, are more complicated than the reforms in the past three decades highlighting growth and efficiency. Government and private sectors, which shared consensus during the past three decades, will encounter conflict of interests in upcoming reforms.
Reform architects should bravely face the wrangling for interests among interest groups as the basis of reforms has changed. There are prices for reforms, and so are there if not to reform. Reformers should innovate the fundamental systems while balancing between gains and losses, pros and cons.
·Comparisons of international transformational economies
·Experiences and lessons from reforms over the past three decades
·Adjustment of boundary between government and the market
·Agenda analysis for deeper reforms
·Cost analysis: to reform or not to
CHEN Qingtai, Research Fellow, Development Research Center of the State Council, P. R. China
QIAN Yingyi, Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
XU Shanda, Member, Committee for Economic Affairs, CPPCC; Former Vice-Commissioner, the State Administration of Taxation, P. R. China
Susan D. WHITING, Vice Chair, The Nielsen Company
CUI Jindu, Vice Mayor, Tianjin Municipal Government, P. R. China
ZHANG Jianfei, Mayor, Changsha Municipal Government, Hunan Province, P. R. China
Moderator：YE Weiqiang, Executive Editorial Board Member, CAIJING
★In association with Boyuan Foundation
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| 15:30-15:50 |
Tea Break |
| 15:50-17:30 |
30 Years of Reforms Tell the Future (Part II):
Political Reform, Rule of Law and Social Transformation
The three decades of reforms have undergone twists and turns. Fruitful on the economic side, reforms on the political side are relatively lagging behind, endangering further economic reforms going forward. Key issues of political reforms include rule of law, expression of opinions, democratic elections, supervision of power and check and balance, as well as public decision-making mechanism.
Deep lying in the core of political reforms is democracy with Chinese characteristics. The balance between being characteristic and being democratic is to be developed by concerted efforts of reformers and the general public, underpinning the need to build a mechanism by which all parties involved are able to express their interests sufficiently. Such a mechanism not only is instrumental to unveil wrangling of interests in an open and systematic way, and to improve efficiency and fairness of public decision-making, but also will effectively ease social conflicts and clashes among various segments.
While playing a critical role in the reform process, government has become more tangible and concrete than it used to be, with its interests diversifying. Government itself needs reform as well, a task endowed by history. It is a great progress that government itself will ultimately evolve from being a driver and proponent of reforms to being a target to be reformed.
· Deepening of reforms and expanding of grass-root democracy
·Institutional reform of government
·Build-up of the rule of law
·“Modernity” discussions on power monitoring and check and balance
·Establishment of public decision-making mechanism
·Harmonious culture and social civilization
QIN Xiao, Chairman, China Merchants Group
MA Huaide, Vice President, China University of Political Science and Law
XU Xiaonian, Professor of Economics and Finance, China Europe International Business School
Scott KENNEDY, Associate Professor, Indiana University; Director, Research Center for Chinese Politics & Business
ZI Zhongyun, Former Director, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
FU Jun, Executive Dean, School of Government, Peking University
SONG Shiming, Professor, China National School of Administration
Moderator：YANG Daming, Deputy Editor-in-Chief & Editorial Director, CAIJING
★In association with Boyuan Foundation
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| 17:30-18:30 |
Cocktail Reception |
| 18:30-20:30 |
CAIJING Gala Dinner
(By invitation only) |
| Studio 1＆2＆3 | Keynote Speech：HAN Qide, Vice Chairman, the Standing Committee, the 11th National People’s Congress, P. R. ChinaGUO Jinlong, Mayor, Beijing Municipal Government, P. R. China
Special Address： Peter WRIEBE, Vice President, Faw-vw Audi Sales Division
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| 20:30-22:00 |
Nightcap |
| Ballroom1The Ritz Carlton |
Panel I: How Can Real Estate Sector Survive the Winter?
The winter of 2008 is no colder than past years, however the real estate sector in China is experiencing one of the worst times in history. The era of high profits is over and restructuring is inevitable. How shall the sector survive this winter of fund shortage and weak demand? What is the way out? To cluster and maintain the price or to get cash flow through sales?
·Should the government take action to save the market? Will it be effective?
·How shall the real estate sector help itself?
·Is the real estate price reflecting its true value or is it a temporary dip?
·Should real estate lending be relaxed? How to manage risks?
·How to explore new financing channels?
·How will the large-scale, low-income residential projects affect the overall real estate market?
FENG Lun, Chairman, Beijing Vantone Real Estate Co., Ltd.
PAN Shiyi, Chairman, SOHO China
REN Zhiqiang, Chairman, Beijing Huayuan Group
WANG Qing, Chief Economist, Greater China, Morgan Stanley
Andy XIE, Guest Economist, CAIJING; Director, Rosetta Stone Capital Ltd.
Ronnie CHAN, Chairman, Hang Lung Group
Fan CHEN, Global Co-Head, Greater China Head, Managing Director, Standard Chartered Private Equity
Moderator：ZHANG Yingguang, Senior Reporter, CAIJING
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| Studio 4
JW Marriott
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Panel II: Financial Derivatives: Innovation, Risk and Regulation
The ongoing financial crisis has made derivative products daunting. Is financial innovation a channel to improve efficiency or a way to make huge indecent profits? Despite the fact that innovations are the key in the financial sector, greediness can be devastating if it dominates. How shall risks be priced after being tempered by greediness and fear? How to draw the line between regulation and self-discipline?
· What are the birth grounds for derivatives?
·How shall financial risks be priced?
·Who should invest in derivatives?
·Where are the boundaries of innovation?
·How to define regulation and self-discipline?
Laura M. CHA, Non-Executive Deputy Chairman, the Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
HUANG Ming, Professor of Finance, Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University and Cheung Kong Graduate School of Management
Charles LI, Chairman, J.P. Morgan China
LI Lingfeng, Hedge Fund Portfolio Manager, CAPULA INVESTMENT
ZHANG Haitao, Executive Vice President, CITIC Capital Holdings Limited
ZHANG Guangping, Deputy Director General, China Banking Regulatory Commission Shanghai Bureau
Moderator：LING Huawei, Editorial Board Member, News Center; Editor, Financial Desk, CAIJING
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Studio 6，JW Marriott
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Panel III: PE in the Downward Economic Cycle
Financiers travel across the Pacific with dreams of prosperity and wealth when economy booms. Some satire them as apt at adding value on the valuable, some believe they are good at taking a bite from the cake. Can they help those in need? Venture capitalists have locked their own coffers in front of recession. To pack up and hibernate at home or to gold-mine in the turmoil? The answers are in the minds of smart financiers.
· Is financial crisis a hard time for private equity?
·Recession: opportunity or challenge?
·Where to invest: financial market or the real economy?
·To buy the Wall Street at a low price?
FANG Fenglei, Founding Partner and Chairman, HOPU Investments; Chairman, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Company Limited
Antony LEUNG, Senior Managing Director, the Blackstone Group; Chairman, Blackstone Greater China
Edward Suning TIAN, Chairman, China Broadband Capital Partners
John ZHAO, Chairman, Hony Capital Limited
LI Shan, Founding Principal, San Shan Capital PartnersFANG Xinghai, Director-General, Office of Financial Services, Shanghai Municipal Government
Moderator：ZHANG Jiwei, Associate Editor, CAIJING
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| Presented by CAIJING Magazine & CAIJING.COM.CN |
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